[BogeyBoy82]

I'm trying to make some spreadsheets that show an investment in numbers with return, expenses, etc that shows a sorta "sweet-spot" on when to sale. Anyone got any they can share or advice on factors other than the normal stuff that I should add to the sheet?

 

[stevefromtheham]

When to sell?

Your strategy should determine when to sell. When you purchase the property you are trying to fix it and sell it or you are trying to rent it. If you are renting then the upside is in the holding long term not selling it. If you are going to hold for a while and then sell just set a time frame and implement your strategy. Trying to time the market is just as hard in real estate as it is in stocks.

Obviously there are a lot of different possibilities and ways you can go but even if the spreadsheet says sell do you have people in there? If so you can't just sell out from under their lease. Unless you have that in the agreement with them and the new owner is aware of this etc etc. Which means just because the sheet says sell it could be a lot harder than that.

I prefer doing your figuring from the front end...ie what is the price I can pay and be able to make money on a sale or cash flow the property. XXXX is the profit I want minus repair cost and expenses = this is what I can pay. This way you are always good on the sale at any time.

 

[SWELLS]

i use this model for basic underwriting. these numbers are merely placeholders for reference.

 

[BogeyBoy82]

I'd like something complex that takes in all kinds of factors like capital gains, rental income, a couple economy variations, occupancy variations, etc. I've seen them in the past that show a best case worst case scenario. I'm gonna start tinkering monday. Y'all let me know if you have any you can share.

 

[SWELLS]

it sounds like what you need is a model for your exists, which is a totally custom spreadsheet. If you aren't good with excel, just find an analyst or someone who is and explain to them your variables.

 

[Moneystacks]

^ Is that model the one used in Fidelity Agent Pro?

 

[Techinsane011]

You must be reading my mind, I need one as well.

I'm trying to make some spreadsheets that show an investment in numbers with return, expenses, etc that shows a sorta "sweet-spot" on when to sale. Anyone got any they can share or advice on factors other than the normal stuff that I should add to the sheet?

 

[BogeyBoy82]

If y'all post up some samples of what y'all are using or provide editable copies it would be much appreciated. This is for personal stuff not going to be using this to make money for anyone but the fam.

 

[DialM]

I'm trying to make some spreadsheets that show an investment in numbers with return, expenses, etc that shows a sorta "sweet-spot" on when to sale. Anyone got any they can share or advice on factors other than the normal stuff that I should add to the sheet?

The one I am working on right now has 29 tabs, the longest of which has nearly 1,100 rows and about 90 columns. Don't you suppose you should be a little more specific about what you want?

 

[stevefromtheham]

Ok, am I missing something? Are you guys saying that a spreadsheet is going to be able to tell you when you should sell a property? Somebody help me out here....

 

[MarcNV]

Ok, am I missing something? Are you guys saying that a spreadsheet is going to be able to tell you when you should sell a property? Somebody help me out here....

Depending on the spreadsheet used, the results and goal in mind will vary.

For example, my particular spread sheet that I use on a daily basis will just show me the numbers. Does it pencil or not, what are the gains, etc. Everything pertinent that I want to know.

Sure they give you the numbers, show you a time and number value of when a good time to sell is, however this depends on more than what the spreadsheet tells you, IE, actual market value and not what the projected market value is.

 

[stevefromtheham]

Depending on the spreadsheet used, the results and goal in mind will vary.

For example, my particular spread sheet that I use on a daily basis will just show me the numbers. Does it pencil or not, what are the gains, etc. Everything pertinent that I want to know.

Sure they give you the numbers, show you a time and number value of when a good time to sell is, however this depends on more than what the spreadsheet tells you, IE, actual market value and not what the projected market value is.

Ok...maybe I am reading more into it, but it just seemed that some were suggesting that the sheet makes the decision for you. Or wanting it to tell them when it is good to sell. My feeling is old school but that you make your money when you buy and if you buy right it doesn't matter about the rest of it. If it is so close that you have to look at a spreadsheet to see what to do you probably shouldn't have bought it to start with.

Worst I have ever had to do is to call my bookeeper (usually my wife) and say "hey are we at $XXXX into 123 elm st?" "yes" SOLD!!!!

But I am normally selling based on either an appraisal or a mark up based on a "flip fee" for a wholesale transaction.

I usually have a strike price on everything I buy from a wholesale standpoint for the 1st 2-8 weeks, then I adjust accordingly based on the market and feedback from the investors I normally sell to.

If it is a retail sale to an end user then the price is based on the appraisal and I am not going to be in it over 65-70% WORST case but usually closer to 60% especially in this market so a sale is a no brainer on a retail end.

If it is a buy and hold then only certain properties in my portfollio are going to be available for sale and none that I haven't owned for at least 12 months for tax purposes. I will do rent to own but I identify which properties will fit that model going in and buy them based on that model up front.

Maybe I am just old school here, but the only spread sheet I use is a list of property addresses so I can keep up with addresses and beds and baths and sales prices. Please let me know if I am missing something here.....

 

[MarcNV]

Old school or not, same concept.

In this generation or not, we just like to nearly confirmed projected values with automatic calculations. I think the ultimate goal and understanding is the same.

Another example. The spreadsheet tells me that once we hit X mark, you are clear to sell at Y price with a Z gain, etc. You then decide, do I want to go ahead and release said property, or continue and attempt for a higher return.

 

[stevefromtheham]

Old school or not, same concept.

In this generation or not, we just like to nearly confirmed projected values with automatic calculations. I think the ultimate goal and understanding is the same.

Another example. The spreadsheet tells me that once we hit X mark, you are clear to sell at Y price with a Z gain, etc. You then decide, do I want to go ahead and release said property, or continue and attempt for a higher return.

gotcha...yup same

Just wondering how much "waiting on the sheet to tell me what to do" is going on vs pulling the trigger for some people. If I buy a property for $40k that needs $10k in fix up and will appraise at 100k (which is what I do) I don't need a sheet to tell me to sell it for $50k tomorrow or at appraisal in a month or two or even three if I have to, or at appraisal after 3 years of renting it for 750-800/month easily with a 1k or 2k downpayment.

I may need a spreadsheet to keep track of how many offers per week I make LOL....if I am buying REO's 20+ offers per week, 2-5 short sale offers, and another 10-15 directly to homeowners sitting accross the kitchen table.

 

[SWELLS]

your models will not determine when to sell, how to sell, or the exact profit you'll make - real estate investing like nearly every other form requires significant intuition and "gut". The numbers alone are not sufficient.

nearly every distressed deal we buy is w/o an appraisal.

 

[stevefromtheham]

your models will not determine when to sell, how to sell, or the exact profit you'll make - real estate investing like nearly every other form requires significant intuition and "gut". The numbers alone are not sufficient.

nearly every distressed deal we buy is w/o an appraisal.

Now a spreadsheet to determine what you pay when you buy I understand...just the selling part I am not vibing on.

 

[MarcNV]

your models will not determine when to sell, how to sell, or the exact profit you'll make - real estate investing like nearly every other form requires significant intuition and "gut". The numbers alone are not sufficient.

nearly every distressed deal we buy is w/o an appraisal.

I'm sorry, but you do not invest on gut and intuition, lol.
Bankruptcy attorneys must make a pretty dime in your location.

 

[DialM]

Well, it also depends who the audience is. If you are presenting it to someone else, be they potential partners, investors, lenders, etc. you may want to present the exit in a different way. Some investors focus on cash flow, some on IRR, some on capital appreciation (some in gross terms, some as a multiple...), some are tax sensitive, some are risk averse, etc. So, showing the projected exit "sweet spot" can mean many different things to many different investors.

 

[stevefromtheham]

I guess I just look at it from a different angle....the numbers are the numbers and they need to figure out what the numbers tell them for themselves. Purchase vs appraisal and the only other variables I am worrying about are cost to get it to appraisal or maybe potential rental amount....but I leave that to the investor. Since all of my purchases I buy myself I have to think that I will keep it if nobody buys it from me so that changes my view a little.

 

[BogeyBoy82]

I understand that "Gut" aka knowledge is the greatest asset in regards to when to sell. However I want to put a ton of variables in the picture and let the spreadsheet give me some basis to make decisions off of. E.G. Take a current asset that is worth $5million. You owe $2.25 on it. It is cash flowing $220k per year net but there is a large liability associated with town turn in economy, occupancy, employee (suits or healthcare laws changing), etc. I've put together a simple analysis of that info but I want something that takes it deep. I have a commercial broker buddy who has showed me some "Monte Carlo" scenarios on real estate and it is mind blowing.