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Discussion Starter #1
Pine River's Kuhn Recommends Shorting Progressive: Video - Bloomberg

The important part really starts at about 1:35. Is this guy talking out of his ass, or do you agree on his prediction?

I'm not sure about the whole "Children born today may never get a drivers license", because even if the car is capable of driving itself, doesn't mean you should sit behind the wheel of said vehicle with the license to manually operate it... considering a risk of system failure or malfunction. It would probably be several decades before anything like that would even come into question.

Now given that the 2016 S-Class is likely to be the first production vehicle that will offer such technology, its also likely that low-end vehicles such as Kia, Hyundai, Honda & Toyota will obtain that technology and make it available to its consumers by his predicted date (2025). In result, that would put majority of the vehicles on the road that will drive themselves, bringing down the necessity for premium insurance.

Whats your take?
 

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Completely autonomous cars in 18 years? Highly doubt it, but it's far enough away that anything is possible. But personally I highly doubt it. That kind of RnD and trickle down cost will take ages if it ever happens.


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Completely autonomous cars in 18 years? Highly doubt it, but it's far enough away that anything is possible. But personally I highly doubt it. That kind of RnD and trickle down cost will take ages if it ever happens.
It's a lot closer than you think lol
 

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They've been testing autonomous cars for years now.
Of course first the transition will be for all cars to have radar guided cruising and braking, but just that will take years if not decades to trickle down to low end / cheap or even mid range cars.

I think it'll be a long long time before full autonomous cars are sold to consumers. Not to mention all it takes is 1 crash due to the driver not driving because the car didn't react.


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Its kinda like pilots and planes having auto pilot. The pilot still needs to go through school and training in case of an incident.

I highly doubt kids today and the near or even far future would be allowed to take a car out on their own without a drivers license just because it drives itself. Someone with a license and training will still need to operate the car if need be
 

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Discussion Starter #7
Of course first the transition will be for all cars to have radar guided cruising and braking, but just that will take years if not decades to trickle down to low end / cheap or even mid range cars.
Adaptive Cruise Control has been around on mid-class vehicles since 2007 (Infiniti G35 Sedan), you can pick up a Mazda 6 these days w/ Adaptive Cruise Control as well.

Just sayin...
 

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Adaptive Cruise Control has been around on mid-class vehicles since 2007 (Infiniti G35 Sedan), you can pick up a Mazda 6 these days w/ Adaptive Cruise Control as well.

Just sayin...
Good point, i'm just saying how long will it take until a perfectly refined version of that is available in all cars. Personally I don't see the point of it all, you need to still be paying attention to what's going on, otherwise you can easily get in an accident, so if you're already paying attention and focusing, how much harder is it to keep your right foot on the gas and a hand on the steering wheel .
 

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Capability and actual application are two different things. Same concept spread around twenty years ago with, "everyone will be in flying cars by the year 2000."

Nonetheless, I'm always fascinated with technology.
 

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So all the kids growing up today who dream of driving a LaFerrari one day, just can't? It's not like they are going to ban every car that can't drive itself from the roads..
I think there will probably be certain highways being made just for "driverless" cars in the future, where you can swith the system on and the car will cover a great distance by itself. But the driver will always be needed.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
so if you're already paying attention and focusing, how much harder is it to keep your right foot on the gas and a hand on the steering wheel .
Apparently a lot harder for the majority of the general public... we're car guys, we love to drive our cars, for others... as long as it gets them from A to B in the most convenient way possible is all they need.


So all the kids growing up today who dream of driving a LaFerrari one day, just can't? It's not like they are going to ban every car that can't drive itself from the roads..
I think there will probably be certain highways being made just for "driverless" cars in the future, where you can swith the system on and the car will cover a great distance by itself. But the driver will always be needed.
I doubt that's the point he was trying to make, although I couldn't understand his point either... that quote was the single most dumbest thing he said in the entire interview. I think he just assumes that by 2025 people won't need a license to drive because the cars will drive themselves, and insurance premiums will be completely eliminated.
 

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I don't know, but I sat through the whole video without skipping. It's fascinating what we can do...and how far technology has come.
 

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It's absolutely amazing. Definitely good for those who tend to drink and drive too. Can you get a DUI if you're not even driving? lol.
 
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