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09-02-2011, 07:59 PM #1
Keeping my self honest from now on, I am going to post all my purchases and prices here for everyone to see.
Today, after the announcement that the Starz deal fell through, when most were selling, I picked up NFLX at $211.16.
8% of Netflix customers viewed content provided by Starz, but I believe that NFLX will be able to purchases comparable content for much cheaper than the $300 million they were going to be paying Starz. Overall, I think the ~9% sell off is hyped and in the end NFLX will be able to purchase similar content and please their consumers for a much cheaper price.
09-04-2011, 06:57 PM #2
congrats on doing the research instead of just buying it, I never knew only 8% watched it. Obv sony is trying to claw its way back after massive losses earlier, and you're probably right about cheaper more useful content
what price are you out at2011 Cadillac CTS-V Black Diamond Edition
09-05-2011, 06:42 PM #3
I will hold for 30+ days due to trading restrictions but, also I believe we will reach levels that we were at only a month or so ago. I do believe in the long term profitability of NFLX but this is simply a play on the Starz contract. I think it will be good for a 10-15% gain in a couple of months.
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09-10-2011, 11:30 PM #4
wow 8% only. shoot i was under the assumption that there best content was coming from starz. When i go on nflx streaming almost all their good stuff is starz.
be very careful though on this stock. Ive been trading a longtime and when i see a chart like the one nflx has it indicates a potential big breakdown..
if it breaks below 200 2011-09-10_1830 - kunal00's library could free fall.Kunal Desai
09-15-2011, 02:36 PM #5
This one has taken a turn for the worse today. NFLX revised down the number of physical DVD subscription accounts active after the price hikes down significantly. Stock is off ~15% premarket.
I will be revisiting their latest sec documents and their international growth strategy and see if i still believe in the model. If i can convince my self of the long term international growth plan i will be using this sell off as a buying opportunity, but if I find something ha fundamentally changed I will cut my losses.
I will revisit this thread later this afternoon after a bit more research.
09-15-2011, 06:03 PM #6
Are you strictly a fundamentalist and not a technical trader?
09-15-2011, 06:19 PM #7
For longer term trades I am fundamentalist, but I also look at technicals for shorter term trades or entry points.
For example I am currently long XIV (short VIX).
09-16-2011, 03:11 AM #8
Somebody really fcked up at Netflix about todays news. Really pisses me off.Current ride: 2013 991 C2/Platinum Silver/Black/Platinum Carrera S Wheels/Sport Design Wheel/Moonroof/PDK/Premium Pkg/Bose Sound/PDLS/Sports Chrono Pkg
09-16-2011, 03:25 AM #9
it happens rossii. bad news travels in packs especially on a stock thats up 1000s of percent in a matter of years. sooner or later the good news runs out and there is always a hiccup. Look at amazon it took so many ups and downs huge runs and tehn big drops.
the starz news i guess in hindsight was the first tell that maybe something more was coming.
and on a technical level the chart has been breaking down foreshadowing a piece of bad news for about a month. these things will happen once in a while its had an amazing run. Now it just needs to digest all this news and base out for a bit shake out all the sellers. For now every pop in NFLX will get shorted by the huge players on the street as the chart is broke and ur coupling it with some bad fundamental news.Kunal Desai
09-16-2011, 06:50 AM #10