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11K views 75 replies 21 participants last post by  kunal00@bullsonws 
#1 ·
Keeping my self honest from now on, I am going to post all my purchases and prices here for everyone to see.

Today, after the announcement that the Starz deal fell through, when most were selling, I picked up NFLX at $211.16.

8% of Netflix customers viewed content provided by Starz, but I believe that NFLX will be able to purchases comparable content for much cheaper than the $300 million they were going to be paying Starz. Overall, I think the ~9% sell off is hyped and in the end NFLX will be able to purchase similar content and please their consumers for a much cheaper price.
 
#2 ·
congrats on doing the research instead of just buying it, I never knew only 8% watched it. Obv sony is trying to claw its way back after massive losses earlier, and you're probably right about cheaper more useful content

what price are you out at
 
#3 ·
I will hold for 30+ days due to trading restrictions but, also I believe we will reach levels that we were at only a month or so ago. I do believe in the long term profitability of NFLX but this is simply a play on the Starz contract. I think it will be good for a 10-15% gain in a couple of months.
 
#4 ·
wow 8% only. shoot i was under the assumption that there best content was coming from starz. When i go on nflx streaming almost all their good stuff is starz.

be very careful though on this stock. Ive been trading a longtime and when i see a chart like the one nflx has it indicates a potential big breakdown..

if it breaks below 200 2011-09-10_1830 - kunal00's library could free fall.
 
#5 ·
This one has taken a turn for the worse today. NFLX revised down the number of physical DVD subscription accounts active after the price hikes down significantly. Stock is off ~15% premarket.

I will be revisiting their latest sec documents and their international growth strategy and see if i still believe in the model. If i can convince my self of the long term international growth plan i will be using this sell off as a buying opportunity, but if I find something ha fundamentally changed I will cut my losses.

I will revisit this thread later this afternoon after a bit more research.
 
#9 ·
it happens rossii. bad news travels in packs especially on a stock thats up 1000s of percent in a matter of years. sooner or later the good news runs out and there is always a hiccup. Look at amazon it took so many ups and downs huge runs and tehn big drops.

the starz news i guess in hindsight was the first tell that maybe something more was coming.

and on a technical level the chart has been breaking down foreshadowing a piece of bad news for about a month. these things will happen once in a while its had an amazing run. Now it just needs to digest all this news and base out for a bit shake out all the sellers. For now every pop in NFLX will get shorted by the huge players on the street as the chart is broke and ur coupling it with some bad fundamental news.
 
#10 ·
Also found out today that a bunch of insiders have been dumping shares left and right... Never a good sign. But I do still believe in the business model they just need to re-align their focus with the consumer and place emphasis on international growth
 
#12 ·
Here is a brief write up on it.

NFLX International Growth Prospects

I am hoping to gain more clarity on their pricing for the new countries they are entering and see what the strategy is for physical dvds. As the article mentions there are many countries and regions that I believe would be a great customer base, but their internet connection speed would be a limiting factor.
 
#13 ·
But again, I want to clarify that I am unsure of my next move...It is for sure that this investment has turned against me in the short term (luckily it was only a small investment) but I am not sure whether it has turned for good or if this is a short term buying opportunity. Before I make that bet I am going to be digging a lot more and need to be 100% confident I believe in their growth, international and domestic.
 
#15 ·
This wasn't a technical trade, it was a fundamental based trade. But the fundamentals also might be breaking down. I am not making any rash decisions so I am taking my time to see if it is wise to cut losses or if this is an entry.

I think you should respond to the other thread you created...A lot of questions are there.
 
#18 ·
Executives set up pre determined trading plans for buying and selling stock. This can be based on price, time etc. So is this selling based on this or are they selling besides the schedule?
 
#20 ·
This is an email I just received from Netflix... I want to get it out there that off the bat and on the surface I think this is a bad idea...

Dear xxxx,

I messed up. I owe you an explanation.

It is clear from the feedback over the past two months that many members felt we lacked respect and humility in the way we announced the separation of DVD and streaming and the price changes. That was certainly not our intent, and I offer my sincere apology. Let me explain what we are doing.

For the past five years, my greatest fear at Netflix has been that we wouldn't make the leap from success in DVDs to success in streaming. Most companies that are great at something – like AOL dialup or Borders bookstores – do not become great at new things people want (streaming for us). So we moved quickly into streaming, but I should have personally given you a full explanation of why we are splitting the services and thereby increasing prices. It wouldn’t have changed the price increase, but it would have been the right thing to do.

So here is what we are doing and why.

Many members love our DVD service, as I do, because nearly every movie ever made is published on DVD. DVD is a great option for those who want the huge and comprehensive selection of movies.

I also love our streaming service because it is integrated into my TV, and I can watch anytime I want. The benefits of our streaming service are really quite different from the benefits of DVD by mail. We need to focus on rapid improvement as streaming technology and the market evolves, without maintaining compatibility with our DVD by mail service.

So we realized that streaming and DVD by mail are really becoming two different businesses, with very different cost structures, that need to be marketed differently, and we need to let each grow and operate independently.

It’s hard to write this after over 10 years of mailing DVDs with pride, but we think it is necessary: In a few weeks, we will rename our DVD by mail service to “Qwikster”. We chose the name Qwikster because it refers to quick delivery. We will keep the name “Netflix” for streaming.

Qwikster will be the same website and DVD service that everyone is used to. It is just a new name, and DVD members will go to qwikster.com to access their DVD queues and choose movies. One improvement we will make at launch is to add a video games upgrade option, similar to our upgrade option for Blu-ray, for those who want to rent Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360 games. Members have been asking for video games for many years, but now that DVD by mail has its own team, we are finally getting it done. Other improvements will follow. A negative of the renaming and separation is that the Qwikster.com and Netflix.com websites will not be integrated.

There are no pricing changes (we’re done with that!). If you subscribe to both services you will have two entries on your credit card statement, one for Qwikster and one for Netflix. The total will be the same as your current charges. We will let you know in a few weeks when the Qwikster.com website is up and ready.

For me the Netflix red envelope has always been a source of joy. The new envelope is still that lovely red, but now it will have a Qwikster logo. I know that logo will grow on me over time, but still, it is hard. I imagine it will be similar for many of you.

I want to acknowledge and thank you for sticking with us, and to apologize again to those members, both current and former, who felt we treated them thoughtlessly.

Both the Qwikster and Netflix teams will work hard to regain your trust. We know it will not be overnight. Actions speak louder than words. But words help people to understand actions.

Respectfully yours,

-Reed Hastings, Co-Founder and CEO, Netflix

p.s. I have a slightly longer explanation along with a video posted on our blog, where you can also post comments.
 
#25 ·
I am not sure it is $100 but I think it is headed lower now. I believe that this is a huge tell from Netflix and shows they have little faith in the continued success of the DVD side of the business. This move might make it easier for them to liquidate and ascribe a value to this business line in the future. But overall I think this is a foreshadowing to the end of NFLX as we know it.
 
#26 ·
Another interesting piece on NFLX today on SeekingAlpha...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/294587-how-i-predicted-netflix-s-fall-and-why-its-prospects-are-getting-worse

I am the first to admit when I am wrong on a call and take my lumps and bruises...and boy, was I wrong on this call... There is more to this story than initially meets the eye.
 
#27 ·
Wiping out 12 months of gains in 2 months......while make over $9.7 in stock sales alone, add his salary and Reed made out. "Pay for performance?!?!" Freakn ridiculous! If it wasnt for my Apple I would be really pissed off. In a climate where perception is everything how could they be so stupid. "Apologizing" on a blog Sunday night?
They tried to do too much to soon. They should have secured content deals before raising prices.

Personally I think he should have said they were going to "grand father" users who have been with them for a year or more with original pricing for a year till they can secure content deals and then raise prices rather than say he fucked up then tell people oh yeah we are now spinning off DVD division and you need to maintain two accounts........
 
#29 ·
CNBC keeps talking about them almost every hour.........freakn give it a rest already. Talk about influencing perception. Hell yesterday it was announced the Chipotle opened their ONE and only test store for Asian food......it boosted market cap by $1 Billion........
 
#30 ·
NFLX wasnt for me.I got into FORD for 1000. New products coming in 12 months, plus in 24 months the 50th anniversary Mustang..
 
#31 ·
Uhh FORD is not Ford Motor Company

FORD = Forward Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ) currently at $2.51 / share

F = Ford Motor Company (NYSE)‎ currently at $10.00 / share in after hours
 
#33 ·
Interesting the NFLX is now worth $6billion with 22million subscribers and HULU is for sale at $2billion with 1 million subscribers.......this whole market is whack.
 
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