Thread: Facebook IPO: Should I Buy In

if you want to invest in this space, with a company that has traction and upside, Twitter is the way to go. i think it's around $8-10B on the secondary markets and it will get to $40-50B, with or without profits.

- chuck

As mentioned, mobile is the problem. More and more usage of FB will be going mobile. It is hard to deliver mobile adds on FB. It's hard enough on a full size computer screen. They are also easily replaceable. They simply will never have the advertising power of Google or Apple, nor the stickiness.

I would expect a pop and drop after the IPO. I would either buy and quickly sell or short it once it pops. But more honestly, sit on the sideline.

Facebook is rolling out mobile ads right now. And look at the picture viewer/lightboxes, they have ads in them now too. First ones that REALLY annoy me.

Originally Posted by lifeoftheparty.

Facebook is rolling out mobile ads right now. And look at the picture viewer/lightboxes, they have ads in them now too. First ones that REALLY annoy me.

Bingo, the transition to mobile ads is going to be very customer-unfriendly. I'm curious how much back lash there will be.

Originally Posted by saintz

Bingo, the transition to mobile ads is going to be very customer-unfriendly. I'm curious how much back lash there will be.

Between now and the IPO is the best/worst time to roll out mobile ads:

BEST: Adding another revenue stream to woo investors
WORST: Perturbing your user base could worry some investors

Deal breaker here is Zuckerberg's ownership share in the company. Given the structure of the company's shares, Zuckerberg owns roughly 50% of the company, giving him a majority stakeholder position. You are investing in him at the end of the day. If you think he can keep up the momentum then more power to you. Lots of skepticism around his experience running a multi billion dollar company given his age. Obviously, lots of other factors but this is something you should also consider prior to dumping personal funds into the stock.

There is a reason that so many investors relinquished voting rights... Any interview I've watched with a seasoned VC or angel talking about Zuck has them saying "he's the real deal" and a true visionary entrepreneur.

All the above posts have some great insight, and should be taken into consideration.

In throwing in my .02, I want to expand upon the "Facebook doesn't 'make' anything" posts.

In today's world, you can't get hung up on the physical product concept. Many companies are finding ways to be VERY successful in selling "nothing". However, regarding Facebook valuation, I would look to see WHERE they are going. Facebook is undoubtedly a very profitable model, but it is primarily based upon advertisement revenue. Google has been able to expand their grip into other sectors (communications, software, social media, etc.) and Facebook has not. Additionally, if you look at Facebook's limited entrance into other markets, it hasn't grown that much (ie. the "facebook" button on various phones). The only successful adendum to Facebook has been the chat...and that's within the site itself.

All in all, I think it's a good company, but like the MAJORITY of IPO's it's overrated. Not every popular company with lots of buzz is going to be the next Google.

GL

Originally Posted by Esquire

All the above posts have some great insight, and should be taken into consideration.

In throwing in my .02, I want to expand upon the "Facebook doesn't 'make' anything" posts.

In today's world, you can't get hung up on the physical product concept. Many companies are finding ways to be VERY successful in selling "nothing". However, regarding Facebook valuation, I would look to see WHERE they are going.

GL

The problem is Facebook is not offering anything besides Ads. Google is selling Many different products and services while Facebook is not.

What about FB selling user information? I would have thought that is where most of the income would come from? After the ipo, even with ZB owning the majority stake, he will be under pressure to allow FB to sell info, if they dont already, despite his personal ethics.