NVDA:
My View: Bearish
In the macro view this chart is extremely bearish. In the short term it appears it could be establishing a double bottom and/or inverse head and shoulders pattern that if confirmed (a move above 9.00/share roughly) could push it to 12-13.00/share.
Just like most of these stocks i've reviewed. They are all bearish charts, but they are SO bearish a move to upside is not only expected, its almost needed to re-establish some equilibrium in the equities.
RATE:
My View: Mildly Bullish
This chart has triple bottomed, tested the downside support multiple times. If it can get above its descending trend line (purple line on chart) look for it to pop to around 35+. A good chart with lots of technical patterns visible on it.
JCOM:
My View: Bearish
Chart doesn't look good at all. A nice spike upwards, but i'd be looking for this to pullback to the downside, possibly retest the lows. NOTE THE MULTIPLE TOP TEST FROM JUN-OCT!!! See how powerful this stuff can be? Now if I saw that I would've bailed on the 2nd test in Aug and been bearish on this equity. This is one of the most SIMPLE pattern to spot and look for, and as you can see above, VERY powerful.
TIE:
My View: Bearish
I would look for this to retest the lows, and then IF it can get above its descending trendline (purple line) look for it to pop to the upside.
RIO:
My View: Neutral
I say neutral for one reason... This appears to have bottomed and is making an effort to get above its descending trendline (purple line) and if thats the case this could be poised to pop. But I have to wager that in with the overall macro pattern which is extremely bearish. So to sum up, short term look for this to move to the upside if it can sustain its pop above the trendline, BUT keep in mind there are numerous layers of overhead resistance that will try to bat this thing down every step of the way.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unitedvisionary
JRCC dropped along with the rest of the coal market when China stopped purchasing coal for Olympics, then business dropped when oil dropped. coal is eventually a major player in the future of energy. do u think this will effect the chart?
DAL is mildly depending on Gas prices, as it is an airline compnay . with recent merger with NWA, it should do a lil better. so i agree on the bullish trend.
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UV - You bring up some an excellent topic, and one i've been wanting to speak on for a while now. But first to address your question directly.
JRCC - I think your analysis is spot on and will undoubtedly effect the chart. The entire commodity pool has been KILLED in the past 4 months, and this chart along with it, but where we go from here, and the timeframe in which we do so is still unclear to me.
Now onto my point. And JRCC is a perfect way to illustrate this. UV believes that this stock is poised to rally based off some very logical conclusions about the future of the energy markets. But the problem with this assumption is this:
Will the market agree with UV? The problem I find with fundamental investing, and trying to gauge investments off very sound ideas like the one above is that I can be 110% right about my analysis... but UNLESS THE
MARKET AGREES WITH ME, i'm still going to lose. I can do all the analysis on corporate records, balance sheets, earnings reports, etc. for any company on the exchange, and I can be 110% right with my analysis and still lose money unless the Senior Analyst for GS agrees with me and decides to put 2 billion dollars where my position is.
Remember this -
A chart is nothing more than a VISUAL representation of investor PSYCHOLOGY. Thus, if JRCC is poised to move for the reasons stated above, guess what the chart is going to do? Its going to tell us that, and more than that its going to tell us that the MARKET agrees with the logic UV has used because that is what has altered the pattern on the chart.
And for those still rooted in fundamentals. I'm not here to tell you that you're wrong, i've done that stuff, and there IS VALUE THERE. My point is this... you could tell Enron was full of crap months before they went under using fundamentals. Guess what the chart said? It said the same thing. So my point with fundamentals is that while they work, they are redundant because that information is being translated into the picture on the chart. And not only that, but with a chart you're guaranteed that the fundamental analysis's conclusions are the ones that the market is willing to bet on, not just yourself.
That is why I believe technical analysis is SO powerful. It gives us insight into what the market believes will happen BEFORE it happens in most cases and with a high degree of accuracy.
I've been bearish on the S&P 500 since the end of '07. Why? Was there a LOAD of fundamental analysis that was pointing towards impending collapse for the past year? Yup. Were things getting visibly shaky in various companies? Yup. Did the market make it clear it didn't want to go any higher by putting in a perfect double top pattern? YUP. And it required no effort on my part other than a quick glance at a chart to tell me what was to come.
I'm not saying you all should go out and become technicians and trade for a living. What i'm saying is that there is a 90% chance your CFA doesn't know these techniques, and a 99% chance he doesn't act on them. I've read the Series 7 book and taken the tests... there is two pages in a book that is 700 pages long about this topic. Furthermore, if he had known these techniques you would've been out with the Dow at 14k and in cash positions for the past year and a half.
You can learn this stuff, and apply it with no more effort than a quick glance at your portfolio once a week. And you'll outperform anything your financial adviser has been shoving down your neck for the past decade by a long shot. You and only YOU have your best interest in mind. This is a relatively simple way to protect your investments with minimal effort and maximum results.
Hope this helps!
Cheers!
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